Book 2B

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Course 2Book 2B: Spaces, Functions and ChangeChapter 10

Ordinary Differential Equations

Existence, uniqueness, Gronwall, comparison, blow-up and invariant sets.

39 min read · Updated Oct 2, 2026

Not in Tao. This chapter is self-contained. For a second voice, Gerald Teschl's Ordinary Differential Equations and Dynamical Systems (American Mathematical Society, Graduate Studies in Mathematics 140) covers the same ground, chapters 1–3 and 6, and with the AMS's permission the author posts an online edition on his web page; Hirsch, Smale and Devaney, Differential Equations, Dynamical Systems, and an Introduction to Chaos, is gentler and has many pictures.

In this chapter · 8 sections
  1. 10.1How far ahead can we predict?
  2. 10.2Existence and uniqueness
  3. 10.3Gronwall's inequality
  4. 10.4How long do solutions last?
  5. 10.5Linear systems
  6. 10.6Comparison and invariant sets
  7. 10.6.1The comparison principle
  8. 10.6.2Invariant sets
  9. 10.7History
  10. 10.8Exercises

An ordinary differential equation (ODE) says how a quantity changes in terms of its current value: y′(t)=F(t,y(t))y'(t) = F(t, y(t)). Population growth, radioactive decay, the motion of planets, chemical reactions and electrical circuits are all ODEs. They are not in Tao's two volumes, and none of the Path's books before Course 8 treat them carefully, yet every later course uses them: the flow of a vector field on a manifold (8A.6 Flows and the Lie Derivative), geodesics (9A.3 Geodesics and the Exponential Map), and the evolution of curvature under Ricci flow, which at each point behaves like an ODE plus a diffusion term (11A.2 How Curvature Evolves, 11A.4 Maximum Principles under Ricci Flow). So the guidebook does them here, where the tools are ready.

The chapter answers four questions. Do solutions exist, and are they unique? Yes, if FF is Lipschitz, by the contraction principle of 2B.2 Completeness and Contraction applied in the function space C([0,T])C([0, T]) of 2B.5 Uniform Convergence and Arzelà–Ascoli. How sensitive are they to the initial data? At most exponentially, by Gronwall's inequality, and sometimes exactly that sensitive, which is why weather can't be forecast indefinitely. How long do they last? Either for ever or until they become infinite: the blow-up alternative, the ODE form of the statement that a Ricci flow exists as long as its curvature stays bounded. What regions do they stay in? Those whose boundary the vector field doesn't cross outwards: invariant sets, the ODE fact behind Hamilton's maximum principle for systems (11A.4 Maximum Principles under Ricci Flow).

By the end of this chapter you will be able to:

  • prove the Picard–Lindelöf existence and uniqueness theorem by contraction;
  • prove Gronwall's inequality and use it for uniqueness and continuous dependence on initial data;
  • use the blow-up alternative to turn an a-priori bound into global existence, and compute blow-up times;
  • solve linear systems with the matrix exponential and read stability from eigenvalues;
  • prove comparison principles for scalar ODEs and invariance of convex sets for systems, and check the hypotheses in examples.

How far ahead can we predict?

In the world Model Lorenz's convection model

In 1963 the meteorologist Edward Lorenz published "Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow", which studied a drastically simplified model of convection in a layer of fluid heated from below, three ODEs for three numbers describing the circulation and temperature:

x′=σ(y−x),y′=x(ρ−z)−y,z′=xy−βz,x' = \sigma(y - x), \qquad y' = x(\rho - z) - y, \qquad z' = xy - \beta z,

with σ=10\sigma = 10, ρ=28\rho = 28 and β=8/3\beta = 8/3. The right-hand side is a polynomial, so by the theorems of this chapter the solution through any initial point exists, is unique, and depends continuously on the initial point. Determinism holds.

But continuity is not the same as stability. Start two solutions 10−910^{-9} apart (in practice, the same state measured to nine decimal places) and integrate them numerically. Their separation grows roughly like e0.9te^{0.9t}: it is about 10−710^{-7} by t=5t = 5, 10−510^{-5} by t=10t = 10, 10−210^{-2} by t=17t = 17, and of the size of the solutions themselves by t≈23t \approx 23, after which the two runs are unrelated (Figure 10.1). Gronwall's inequality, proved below, says that errors grow at most exponentially. Lorenz's system shows that exponential growth actually happens, for an equation with no randomness at all. That observation is the origin of the modern idea that weather has a finite predictability horizon: each digit of extra precision in the initial state buys only a fixed extra amount of forecast time.

Figure 10.1. The distance between two solutions of the Lorenz system that start 10−910^{-9} apart, computed numerically (fourth-order Runge–Kutta, step 0.0010.001), on a logarithmic scale. It grows on average like e0.9te^{0.9t} (dashed line) until it saturates at the size of the attractor. Gronwall's inequality allows exponential growth; this system uses it.

Existence and uniqueness

We study the initial value problem

y′(t)=F(t,y(t)),y(t0)=y0,(IVP)y'(t) = F(t, y(t)), \qquad y(t_0) = y_0, \tag{IVP}

where yy takes values in Rn\mathbb{R}^n and FF is continuous on an open set of R×Rn\mathbb{R} \times \mathbb{R}^n. Higher-order equations reduce to this: u′′=−uu'' = -u becomes the system (u,v)′=(v,−u)(u, v)' = (v, -u).

By the fundamental theorem of calculus (2A.11 The Riemann Integral), a continuous function yy solves (IVP) on an interval if and only if it solves the integral equation

y(t)=y0+∫t0tF(s,y(s)) ds.y(t) = y_0 + \int_{t_0}^tF(s, y(s))\,ds.

The integral form needs no derivatives, and it is the one that sets up a fixed-point problem.

Two examples show what can go wrong.

  • Non-uniqueness. y′=3y2/3y' = 3y^{2/3}, y(0)=0y(0) = 0 has the solution y=0y = 0, and also y=t3y = t^3, and also, for any c>0c > 0, the function that is 00 until t=ct = c and (t−c)3(t - c)^3 afterwards. The function 3y2/33y^{2/3} is continuous but has infinite slope at 00.
  • Finite-time blow-up. y′=y2y' = y^2, y(0)=1y(0) = 1 has the solution y=11−ty = \frac{1}{1 - t}, which becomes infinite at t=1t = 1 (2A.10 Derivatives). The right-hand side is perfectly smooth, but it grows faster than linearly.

The first problem is cured by a Lipschitz condition. The second is not a problem to be cured but a phenomenon to be understood.

Definition 10.1 Lipschitz in yy

FF is Lipschitz in yy on a set DD with constant LL if ∣F(t,y)−F(t,z)∣≤L∣y−z∣|F(t, y) - F(t, z)| \leq L|y - z| whenever (t,y),(t,z)∈D(t, y), (t, z) \in D. It is locally Lipschitz if every point has a neighbourhood on which it is Lipschitz in yy. By the mean value inequality (2B.8 Calculus in Several Variables), every C1C^1 function is locally Lipschitz.

Theorem 10.2 Picard–Lindelöf

Let FF be continuous on the cylinder D=[t0,t0+a]×Bˉ(y0,b)D = [t_0, t_0 + a] \times \bar B(y_0, b), with ∣F∣≤M|F| \leq M there, and Lipschitz in yy on DD with constant LL. Let T=min⁡(a,b/M)T = \min(a, b/M). Then (IVP) has exactly one solution on [t0,t0+T][t_0, t_0 + T] with values in Bˉ(y0,b)\bar B(y_0, b).

Proof. Let XX be the set of continuous y:[t0,t0+T]→Bˉ(y0,b)y : [t_0, t_0 + T] \to \bar B(y_0, b). It is a closed subset of C([t0,t0+T];Rn)C([t_0, t_0 + T]; \mathbb{R}^n) with the sup metric, which is complete (2B.5 Uniform Convergence and Arzelà–Ascoli), so XX is complete (2B.2 Completeness and Contraction). Define

Φ(y)(t)=y0+∫t0tF(s,y(s)) ds.\Phi(y)(t) = y_0 + \int_{t_0}^tF(s, y(s))\,ds.

Φ\Phi maps XX to XX. Φ(y)\Phi(y) is continuous, and ∣Φ(y)(t)−y0∣≤M(t−t0)≤MT≤b|\Phi(y)(t) - y_0| \leq M(t - t_0) \leq MT \leq b.

Φ\Phi is eventually contracting. For y,z∈Xy, z \in X, ∣Φ(y)(t)−Φ(z)(t)∣≤∫t0tL∣y(s)−z(s)∣ ds≤L(t−t0) d∞(y,z)|\Phi(y)(t) - \Phi(z)(t)| \leq \int_{t_0}^tL|y(s) - z(s)|\,ds \leq L(t - t_0)\,d_\infty(y, z). Feeding this bound back in, by induction,

∣Φk(y)(t)−Φk(z)(t)∣≤Lk(t−t0)kk! d∞(y,z),sod∞(Φky,Φkz)≤(LT)kk! d∞(y,z).|\Phi^k(y)(t) - \Phi^k(z)(t)| \leq \frac{L^k(t - t_0)^k}{k!}\,d_\infty(y, z), \qquad\text{so}\qquad d_\infty(\Phi^ky, \Phi^kz) \leq \frac{(LT)^k}{k!}\,d_\infty(y, z).

Since (LT)kk!→0\frac{(LT)^k}{k!} \to 0, some Φk\Phi^k is a contraction. By 2B.2 Completeness and Contraction's corollary on eventually contracting maps, Φ\Phi has exactly one fixed point in XX, which is the solution.

The iterates Φk(y0)\Phi^k(y_0), starting from the constant function, are the Picard iterates. For y′=yy' = y they are the Taylor polynomials of ete^t (2B.2 Completeness and Contraction). The same theorem holds backwards in time, on [t0−T,t0][t_0 - T, t_0].

A second, quite different existence theorem is worth knowing. Peano's theorem says that if FF is merely continuous, solutions still exist (but may not be unique, as 3y2/33y^{2/3} showed). The proof is by compactness instead of contraction: build approximate solutions by Euler's method (straight-line steps), note that they all have slope at most MM, so they are equicontinuous, and extract a uniformly convergent subsequence by Arzelà–Ascoli (2B.5 Uniform Convergence and Arzelà–Ascoli). The limit solves the integral equation (Exercise 10.13). The two proofs are the two engines of existence, completeness and compactness, side by side.

Gronwall's inequality

Lemma 10.3 Gronwall's inequality

Let uu be continuous and non-negative on [t0,t1][t_0, t_1], and suppose that for constants A≥0A \geq 0 and L≥0L \geq 0,

u(t)≤A+L∫t0tu(s) dsfor all t∈[t0,t1].u(t) \leq A + L\int_{t_0}^tu(s)\,ds \quad \text{for all } t \in [t_0, t_1].

Then u(t)≤A eL(t−t0)u(t) \leq A\,e^{L(t - t_0)} on [t0,t1][t_0, t_1].

Proof. Let U(t)=A+L∫t0tuU(t) = A + L\int_{t_0}^tu, so u≤Uu \leq U and U′=Lu≤LUU' = Lu \leq LU. Then (e−L(t−t0)U(t))′=e−L(t−t0)(U′−LU)≤0\big(e^{-L(t - t_0)}U(t)\big)' = e^{-L(t-t_0)}(U' - LU) \leq 0, so e−L(t−t0)U(t)≤U(t0)=Ae^{-L(t - t_0)}U(t) \leq U(t_0) = A. Hence u≤U≤AeL(t−t0)u \leq U \leq Ae^{L(t - t_0)}.

The proof is the comparison argument of 2A.10 Derivatives: a quantity growing no faster than LL times itself grows no faster than eLte^{Lt}. Its consequences are the basic stability facts about ODEs.

Corollary 10.4 Uniqueness and continuous dependence

Let FF be Lipschitz in yy with constant LL on a region containing the graphs of two solutions yy and zz of y′=F(t,y)y' = F(t, y) on [t0,t1][t_0, t_1]. Then

∣y(t)−z(t)∣≤∣y(t0)−z(t0)∣ eL(t−t0).|y(t) - z(t)| \leq |y(t_0) - z(t_0)|\,e^{L(t - t_0)}.

In particular, solutions with the same initial value coincide.

Proof. y(t)−z(t)=y(t0)−z(t0)+∫t0t(F(s,y)−F(s,z)) dsy(t) - z(t) = y(t_0) - z(t_0) + \int_{t_0}^t\big(F(s, y) - F(s, z)\big)\,ds, so u=∣y−z∣u = |y - z| satisfies u(t)≤u(t0)+L∫t0tuu(t) \leq u(t_0) + L\int_{t_0}^tu. Apply Gronwall.

For the Lorenz system, a Lipschitz constant LL on the region where solutions live gives the bound eLte^{Lt} on the growth of errors. The bound is crude (here LL is much larger than the observed rate 0.90.9), but the form of the bound, exponential, is attained. No better general statement is possible.

Differentiability in the initial data also holds. If FF is C1C^1, the solution y(t;y0)y(t; y_0) is C1C^1 in y0y_0, and its derivative J(t)=∂y/∂y0J(t) = \partial y/\partial y_0 solves the linearised (or variational) equation J′=DyF(t,y(t)) JJ' = D_yF(t, y(t))\,J with J(t0)=IJ(t_0) = I. (Differentiate the equation in y0y_0; the proof that this is legitimate is an application of the implicit function theorem or of Gronwall to difference quotients, and we take it on trust.) The growth rate of JJ along a typical solution of the Lorenz system is its Lyapunov exponent, about 0.90.9.

How long do solutions last?

Picard–Lindelöf gives existence for a short time. Gluing local solutions together, using uniqueness to make the pieces agree, gives a maximal solution, defined on a largest open interval (T−,T+)(T_-, T_+) containing t0t_0, and the question is what happens at its ends.

Theorem 10.5 The blow-up alternative

Let F:Rn→RnF : \mathbb{R}^n \to \mathbb{R}^n be locally Lipschitz, and let yy be the maximal solution of y′=F(y)y' = F(y), y(0)=y0y(0) = y_0, on [0,T+)[0, T_+). If T+<∞T_+ < \infty, then yy leaves every compact set for good: for every compact KK there is tK<T+t_K < T_+ with y(t)∉Ky(t) \notin K for tK<t<T+t_K < t < T_+. In particular ∣y(t)∣→∞|y(t)| \to \infty as t→T+t \to T_+.

Proof. Let KK be compact and let K′K' be the closed 11-neighbourhood of KK, also compact. FF is Lipschitz and bounded, say by MM, on K′K' (cover K′K' by finitely many balls on which FF is Lipschitz, 2B.3 Compactness; a Lipschitz constant on K′K' follows with a little care, Exercise 10.14). By Picard–Lindelöf with b=1b = 1, the solution starting at any point of KK at any time exists for a time at least δ=min⁡(1,1/M)>0\delta = \min(1, 1/M) > 0, the same δ\delta for every starting point. Now suppose y(tk)∈Ky(t_k) \in K for a sequence tk→T+t_k \to T_+. Choose kk with tk>T+−δt_k > T_+ - \delta. The solution starting at y(tk)y(t_k) at time tkt_k exists until tk+δ>T+t_k + \delta > T_+, and by uniqueness it continues yy. That contradicts maximality.

The theorem turns the existence question into a bounds question. If you can prove an a-priori bound, that every solution stays in some compact set on every finite time interval, then solutions exist for all time. For example, if ∣F(y)∣≤A+B∣y∣|F(y)| \leq A + B|y| (linear growth), Gronwall applied to ∣y(t)∣≤∣y0∣+∫(A+B∣y∣)|y(t)| \leq |y_0| + \int(A + B|y|) shows ∣y∣|y| can't blow up in finite time, so solutions are global. In particular every linear system y′=A(t)y+b(t)y' = A(t)y + b(t) with continuous coefficients has solutions for all time.

Example 10.6 Superlinear growth blows up

For y′=y1+αy' = y^{1 + \alpha} with α>0\alpha > 0 and y(0)=y0>0y(0) = y_0 > 0, separating variables gives

y(t)=(y0−α−αt)−1/α,T+=1α y0α.y(t) = \big(y_0^{-\alpha} - \alpha t\big)^{-1/\alpha}, \qquad T_+ = \frac{1}{\alpha\,y_0^{\alpha}}.

Larger initial data blow up sooner. Compare Newton's law of cooling, y′=−k(y−T0)y' = -k(y - T_0), whose solutions relax exponentially to the ambient temperature T0T_0 and exist for all time: the right-hand side grows only linearly. The thermal runaway of 2A.10 Derivatives is the case of a heat source that grows faster than linearly with temperature, and it is the blow-up alternative in action (Figure 10.2).

Figure 10.2. Solutions of y′=y2y' = y^2 from y0=0.5,1,2y_0 = 0.5, 1, 2 blow up at t=1/y0t = 1/y_0 (dashed asymptotes). Solutions of y′=−yy' = -y from the same starting values decay for all time. Quadratic growth of the right-hand side is enough to make a solution infinite in finite time.
Where this goes A flow exists as long as its curvature is bounded

Hamilton proved in 1982 that a Ricci flow on a closed manifold exists on a maximal interval [0,T)[0, T), and that if T<∞T < \infty then max⁡∣Rm∣\max|\mathrm{Rm}| is unbounded as t→Tt \to T (11A.3 Short-Time Existence and Uniqueness, 11A.6 Hamilton’s 1982 Theorem). That is the blow-up alternative, with "leaves every compact set" replaced by "curvature becomes unbounded"; its proof uses Shi's estimates to show that bounded curvature gives bounds on everything else, so the flow can be continued, exactly as δ\delta was uniform above. The singularities that Perelman analyses are precisely the finite times at which curvature blows up, and the scalar-curvature comparison of 2A.10 Derivatives (Rmin⁡′≥2nRmin⁡2R_{\min}' \geq \frac2nR_{\min}^2) already shows that on a manifold with positive scalar curvature, TT must be finite.

Linear systems

For a constant matrix AA, the solution of y′=Ayy' = Ay is y(t)=etAy0y(t) = e^{tA}y_0 (2B.6 Power Series, Exponentials and Bump Functions). Its long-time behaviour is decided by the eigenvalues of AA. If AA is diagonalisable with eigenvalues λi\lambda_i and eigenvectors viv_i, then writing y0=∑civiy_0 = \sum c_iv_i,

y(t)=∑ici eλit vi.y(t) = \sum_i c_i\,e^{\lambda_it}\,v_i.

Components along eigenvalues with negative real part decay, those with positive real part grow, and complex eigenvalues a±iba \pm ib produce rotation at rate bb with growth or decay eate^{at} (2B.6 Power Series, Exponentials and Bump Functions). In the plane this gives the standard phase portraits: a stable node (two negative eigenvalues), an unstable node, a saddle (eigenvalues of opposite signs, with a stable and an unstable direction), spirals and centres. The equilibrium 00 is asymptotically stable exactly when every eigenvalue has negative real part.

The linear theory describes nonlinear systems near equilibria. If F(y∗)=0F(y^*) = 0, then near y∗y^*, y′=F(y)≈DF(y∗)(y−y∗)y' = F(y) \approx DF(y^*)(y - y^*), and the eigenvalues of DF(y∗)DF(y^*) decide stability: if all have negative real part, y∗y^* is asymptotically stable for the nonlinear system too (Exercise 10.12). This is the "linearise" step of thread L applied to dynamics. In 11B.1 Ricci Solitons the same question, stability of an equilibrium, is asked of Ricci solitons, which are the equilibria of Ricci flow up to scaling and diffeomorphism.

Comparison and invariant sets

The comparison principle

For scalar equations, solutions can't cross. That gives a powerful way to control a solution of a complicated equation by one of a simpler equation.

Proposition 10.7 Comparison principle

Let F:R→RF : \mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R} be locally Lipschitz, zz a solution of z′=F(z)z' = F(z), and yy a C1C^1 function with y′≤F(y)y' \leq F(y) on [0,T][0, T] and y(0)≤z(0)y(0) \leq z(0). Then y(t)≤z(t)y(t) \leq z(t) on [0,T][0, T].

Proof. Let w=y−zw = y - z, and let LL be a Lipschitz constant for FF on an interval containing the values of yy and zz on [0,T][0, T]. Then w′≤F(y)−F(z)≤L∣w∣w' \leq F(y) - F(z) \leq L|w|. Suppose w(t1)>0w(t_1) > 0 for some t1t_1, and let s=sup⁡{t<t1:w(t)≤0}s = \sup\{t < t_1 : w(t) \leq 0\}; then w(s)=0w(s) = 0 and w>0w > 0 on (s,t1](s, t_1]. There, w′≤Lww' \leq Lw, so (e−Ltw)′≤0(e^{-Lt}w)' \leq 0 and e−Lt1w(t1)≤e−Lsw(s)=0e^{-Lt_1}w(t_1) \leq e^{-Ls}w(s) = 0, a contradiction.

In 2A.10 Derivatives this was done by hand for F(y)=cy2F(y) = cy^2, to show that scalar curvature forces a singularity. The general version says: to bound a quantity that satisfies a differential inequality, solve the corresponding equation and compare. In PDE the same idea, applied at the maximum point of a function, becomes the maximum principle (6A.4 Maximum Principles).

Invariant sets

For systems there is no ordering of Rn\mathbb{R}^n to compare with, and the right notion is an invariant set: a set KK such that solutions starting in KK stay in KK. When is a closed set invariant? Intuitively, when the vector field never points out of it at its boundary. For convex sets this has a clean form. A vector ν\nu is an outward normal to a closed convex set KK at a boundary point pp if ν⋅(q−p)≤0\nu\cdot(q - p) \leq 0 for every q∈Kq \in K: the whole of KK lies on one side of the plane through pp perpendicular to ν\nu.

Theorem 10.8 Invariance of convex sets

Let K⊆RnK \subseteq \mathbb{R}^n be closed and convex, and FF locally Lipschitz. Suppose that at every boundary point pp of KK, the vector field doesn't point outwards:

ν⋅F(p)≤0for every outward normal ν at p.\nu\cdot F(p) \leq 0 \quad\text{for every outward normal } \nu \text{ at } p.

Then every solution of y′=F(y)y' = F(y) that starts in KK stays in KK for as long as it exists.

Proof. For each yy, let π(y)\pi(y) be the nearest point of KK to yy, which exists by compactness (2B.3 Compactness) and is unique by convexity, and let d(y)=12∣y−π(y)∣2d(y) = \tfrac12|y - \pi(y)|^2, half the squared distance to KK. Two facts about convex sets are needed (Exercise 10.15): y−π(y)y - \pi(y) is an outward normal to KK at π(y)\pi(y), and dd is differentiable with ∇d(y)=y−π(y)\nabla d(y) = y - \pi(y).

Let y(t)y(t) be a solution starting in KK, on an interval [0,T][0, T] on which it stays in a compact set where FF has Lipschitz constant LL. Write p=π(y(t))p = \pi(y(t)). Then

ddtd(y(t))=(y−p)⋅F(y)=(y−p)⋅F(p)+(y−p)⋅(F(y)−F(p))≤0+L∣y−p∣2=2L d(y(t)),\frac{d}{dt}d(y(t)) = (y - p)\cdot F(y) = (y - p)\cdot F(p) + (y - p)\cdot\big(F(y) - F(p)\big) \leq 0 + L|y - p|^2 = 2L\,d(y(t)),

where the first term is ≤0\leq 0 by the hypothesis, since y−py - p is an outward normal at pp (or zero). So (e−2Ltd(y(t)))′≤0\big(e^{-2Lt}d(y(t))\big)' \leq 0, and d(y(t))≤e2Ltd(y(0))=0d(y(t)) \leq e^{2Lt}d(y(0)) = 0. The solution never leaves KK.

Figure 10.3. An invariant triangle for the SIR epidemic model below. Along each edge the vector field points inwards or along the edge, so by Theorem 10.8 no solution can leave. Two solution curves are shown, with R0=3R_0 = 3: the number of infected rises, peaks when S=1/R0S = 1/R_0, and falls.
In the world Model An epidemic stays in its triangle

The SIR model of Kermack and McKendrick (1927) divides a population into fractions susceptible (SS), infected (II) and removed (recovered or dead). With transmission rate β\beta and recovery rate γ\gamma,

S′=−βSI,I′=βSI−γI.S' = -\beta SI, \qquad I' = \beta SI - \gamma I.

The meaningful states form the triangle K={S≥0, I≥0, S+I≤1}K = \{S \geq 0,\ I \geq 0,\ S + I \leq 1\}, and it is invariant: on the edge S=0S = 0, S′=0S' = 0; on I=0I = 0, I′=0I' = 0; on S+I=1S + I = 1, (S+I)′=−γI≤0(S + I)' = -\gamma I \leq 0. In each case the outward normal (−eS-e_S, −eI-e_I or eS+eIe_S + e_I) has a non-positive inner product with the vector field (Figure 10.3). So the model can never produce a negative number of people, which is reassuring and also a theorem.

The equation for II gives the threshold: I′=γI (R0S−1)I' = \gamma I\,(R_0S - 1) with R0=β/γR_0 = \beta/\gamma. An outbreak grows initially if and only if R0S(0)>1R_0S(0) > 1, and the number infected peaks exactly when SS has fallen to 1/R01/R_0. The figure uses β=0.3\beta = 0.3 and γ=0.1\gamma = 0.1 per day (R0=3R_0 = 3), illustrative values chosen for the picture, not fitted to any disease.

Where this goes Hamilton's maximum principle for systems

In dimension 3, Hamilton showed that under Ricci flow the eigenvalues λ≥μ≥ν\lambda \geq \mu \geq \nu of the curvature operator satisfy, at each point, a heat-type equation whose reaction part is the ODE

λ′=λ2+μν,μ′=μ2+λν,ν′=ν2+λμ\lambda' = \lambda^2 + \mu\nu, \qquad \mu' = \mu^2 + \lambda\nu, \qquad \nu' = \nu^2 + \lambda\mu

(in his normalisation; 11A.2 How Curvature Evolves derives it and fixes conventions). His maximum principle for systems (11A.4 Maximum Principles under Ricci Flow) says: a closed convex set of curvature operators, invariant under the parallel transport, that is invariant under this ODE is also preserved by the Ricci flow. The diffusion term can't push the curvature out of a convex set, because at a point where the curvature first touches the boundary, the Laplacian points inwards (the Hessian argument of 2B.8 Calculus in Several Variables), and the ODE does not point outwards by hypothesis. So proving that Ricci flow preserves a curvature condition reduces to Theorem 10.8 for a three-dimensional ODE. Exercise 10.16 does the simplest case: nonnegative curvature operator is preserved.

Figure 10.4 previews the ODE's behaviour. Solutions starting with all eigenvalues positive blow up with the ratios μ/λ\mu/\lambda and ν/λ\nu/\lambda tending to 11, the curvature of a round sphere: this is the ODE heart of Hamilton's 1982 theorem that 3-manifolds with positive Ricci curvature become round (11A.6 Hamilton’s 1982 Theorem). Some solutions with a negative eigenvalue are drawn instead towards the direction (1,0,0)(1, 0, 0), the curvature of a round cylinder, which is the shape of a neck about to pinch (11B.4 Singularities).

Figure 10.4. Preview: solutions of Hamilton's curvature ODE in dimension 3, drawn in the ratios (μ/λ,ν/λ)(\mu/\lambda, \nu/\lambda) (computed numerically). The shaded region, all eigenvalues non-negative, is invariant. Solutions inside it run to (1,1)(1, 1), the round sphere. Some solutions with ν<0\nu < 0 run towards (0,0)(0, 0), the round cylinder S2×RS^2 \times \mathbb{R}, the model of a neck. You will meet this system again in Book 11A.

History

Newton and Leibniz solved the first differential equations in the 1670s–1690s, and through the 18th century Euler and others solved many by explicit formulas. Cauchy, in lectures from the 1820s, gave the first existence proof, by the polygon (Euler) approximations. Rudolf Lipschitz introduced his condition in 1876; Émile Picard developed successive approximations in 1890, and Ernst Lindelöf gave the theorem its modern form in 1894. Giuseppe Peano proved existence for continuous right-hand sides in 1886 and 1890. Thomas Grönwall published his inequality in 1919. Henri Poincaré, from the 1880s, turned the subject from finding formulas to describing the shapes of solutions, the qualitative theory of which phase portraits and invariant sets are part, and Lorenz's 1963 paper showed how strange those shapes can be. William Kermack and Anderson McKendrick's epidemic model appeared in 1927. Hamilton's use of invariant sets for the curvature ODE dates from his 1982 and 1986 papers on 3- and 4-manifolds.

Recall Book 2B in one paragraph

We replaced the real line by metric spaces, where distance, completeness and compactness became the main ideas: complete spaces gave the contraction mapping principle, compact spaces gave the maximum principle and the contradiction–compactness template, and connected spaces gave the intermediate value theorem. In spaces of functions, uniform convergence preserved continuity, polynomials turned out to be dense, and the Arzelà–Ascoli theorem turned derivative bounds into compactness. Power series gave the exponential function, the matrix exponential and, by way of a function flat at 00, smooth cutoffs. Fourier series solved the heat equation on a ring, showing smoothing, energy decay and the maximum principle. Calculus in several variables gave the derivative as a linear map and the Hessian as a quadratic form; the inverse function theorem showed that invertible linearisations make nonlinear equations solvable; and this chapter solved ODEs by contraction and controlled them by Gronwall, comparison and invariant sets.

Where this goes Into Book 3A

Two loose ends point to measure theory. First, 2B.7 Fourier Series and the First Heat Equation's Fourier theory wants the space of all functions with ∫∣f∣2<∞\int|f|^2 < \infty, and with the Riemann integral that space is not complete (2B.2 Completeness and Contraction's incomplete example was of exactly this kind). Second, exchanging limits and integrals (2B.5 Uniform Convergence and Arzelà–Ascoli) needed uniform convergence, which is far too strong for PDE, where solutions are found as limits that converge only on average. Book 3A, starting with 3A.1 The Problem of Measure, builds the Lebesgue integral, in which limits behave (the monotone and dominated convergence theorems of 3A.3 The Lebesgue Integral), and completes the function spaces, as 2A.4 The Real Numbers completed Q\mathbb{Q}.

Exercises

Exercise 10.9 Picard iterates

Compute the first three Picard iterates for y′=1+y2y' = 1 + y^2, y(0)=0y(0) = 0, starting from y≡0y \equiv 0, and compare with the Taylor series of the exact solution tan⁡t\tan t. On what interval does the solution exist, and what does the blow-up alternative say happens at its end?

Solution

y1=ty_1 = t, y2=t+t33y_2 = t + \frac{t^3}{3}, y3=t+t33+2t515+t763y_3 = t + \frac{t^3}{3} + \frac{2t^5}{15} + \frac{t^7}{63}. The Taylor series of tan⁡t\tan t is t+t33+2t515+17t7315+⋯t + \frac{t^3}{3} + \frac{2t^5}{15} + \frac{17t^7}{315} + \cdots: the iterates agree with it up to t5t^5. The solution exists on (−π/2,π/2)(-\pi/2, \pi/2) and ∣tan⁡t∣→∞|\tan t| \to \infty at the ends.

Exercise 10.10 Gronwall in differential form

Show that if uu is C1C^1 with u′≤a(t)uu' \leq a(t)u for a continuous function aa, then u(t)≤u(t0)exp⁡(∫t0ta)u(t) \leq u(t_0)\exp\big(\int_{t_0}^ta\big). (Differentiate uexp⁡(−∫a)u\exp(-\int a).) Note that uu need not be non-negative here.

Exercise 10.11 When does blow-up happen?

Let F:R→(0,∞)F : \mathbb{R} \to (0, \infty) be continuous. Show that the solution of y′=F(y)y' = F(y), y(0)=y0y(0) = y_0, blows up in finite time if and only if ∫y0∞dyF(y)<∞\int_{y_0}^\infty\frac{dy}{F(y)} < \infty, and that the blow-up time is this integral. Apply this to F(y)=y1+αF(y) = y^{1+\alpha}, to F(y)=ylog⁡yF(y) = y\log y (for y0>1y_0 > 1), and to F(y)=eyF(y) = e^y.

Solution

Separating variables, t=∫y0y(t)dsF(s)t = \int_{y_0}^{y(t)}\frac{ds}{F(s)}; yy is increasing, and y(t)→∞y(t) \to \infty as tt approaches ∫y0∞dsF(s)\int_{y_0}^\infty\frac{ds}{F(s)}, which is the existence time. y1+αy^{1+\alpha}: T=y0−ααT = \frac{y_0^{-\alpha}}{\alpha}. ylog⁡yy\log y: ∫dyylog⁡y=log⁡log⁡y→∞\int\frac{dy}{y\log y} = \log\log y \to \infty, so no blow-up (the solution is exp⁡(etlog⁡y0)\exp(e^t\log y_0), growing doubly exponentially). eye^y: T=e−y0T = e^{-y_0}.

Exercise 10.12 Linearised stability

Let F(0)=0F(0) = 0 and suppose every eigenvalue of A=DF(0)A = DF(0) has real part less than −2c<0-2c < 0. (a) Assuming AA is diagonalisable with real eigenvalues, show there is a norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\| on Rn\mathbb{R}^n (Euclidean in eigen-coordinates) with ddt∥etAv∥2≤−4c∥etAv∥2\frac{d}{dt}\|e^{tA}v\|^2 \leq -4c\|e^{tA}v\|^2. (b) Using ∣F(y)−Ay∣≤c∣y∣|F(y) - Ay| \leq c|y| for ∣y∣|y| small, show that solutions of y′=F(y)y' = F(y) starting close enough to 00 satisfy ddt∥y∥2≤−2c′∥y∥2\frac{d}{dt}\|y\|^2 \leq -2c'\|y\|^2 for some c′>0c' > 0, and so tend to 00 exponentially.

Exercise 10.13 Peano's theorem by Arzelà–Ascoli

Let FF be continuous with ∣F∣≤M|F| \leq M on [0,1]×R[0, 1] \times \mathbb{R}. For each nn, let yny_n be Euler's polygon: yn(0)=y0y_n(0) = y_0, and on [kn,k+1n][\frac kn, \frac{k+1}n], yny_n is linear with slope F(kn,yn(kn))F(\frac kn, y_n(\frac kn)). (a) Show the yny_n are uniformly bounded and MM-Lipschitz, so a subsequence converges uniformly to some yy. (b) Show that y(t)=y0+∫0tF(s,y(s)) dsy(t) = y_0 + \int_0^tF(s, y(s))\,ds, using uniform continuity of FF on a compact set. So a solution exists, though for F(t,y)=3y2/3F(t, y) = 3y^{2/3} it need not be unique.

Exercise 10.14 Locally Lipschitz on a compact set

Let FF be locally Lipschitz on Rn\mathbb{R}^n and KK compact. Show that FF is Lipschitz on KK. (Use a Lebesgue number δ\delta for a cover of KK by balls on which FF is Lipschitz, 2B.3 Compactness, and treat pairs with ∣y−z∣<δ|y - z| < \delta and ∣y−z∣≥δ|y - z| \geq \delta separately; for the second, use that FF is bounded on KK.)

Exercise 10.15 Projections onto convex sets

Let KK be closed, convex and non-empty, and π(y)\pi(y) the nearest point of KK to yy. (a) Show that (y−π(y))⋅(q−π(y))≤0(y - \pi(y))\cdot(q - \pi(y)) \leq 0 for every q∈Kq \in K (expand ∣y−(π(y)+s(q−π(y)))∣2≥∣y−π(y)∣2|y - (\pi(y) + s(q - \pi(y)))|^2 \geq |y - \pi(y)|^2 for small s>0s > 0). (b) Deduce that ∣π(y)−π(z)∣≤∣y−z∣|\pi(y) - \pi(z)| \leq |y - z|. (c) Let d(y)=12∣y−π(y)∣2d(y) = \tfrac12|y - \pi(y)|^2. Show that d(z)≤d(y)+(y−π(y))⋅(z−y)+12∣z−y∣2d(z) \leq d(y) + (y - \pi(y))\cdot(z - y) + \tfrac12|z - y|^2 (compare with 12∣z−π(y)∣2\tfrac12|z - \pi(y)|^2), and similarly bound d(z)d(z) below with an error O(∣z−y∣2)O(|z - y|^2), using (b). Conclude that dd is differentiable with ∇d(y)=y−π(y)\nabla d(y) = y - \pi(y).

Solution

(a) ∣y−π(y)−s(q−π(y))∣2=∣y−π(y)∣2−2s(y−π(y))⋅(q−π(y))+s2∣q−π(y)∣2|y - \pi(y) - s(q - \pi(y))|^2 = |y - \pi(y)|^2 - 2s(y - \pi(y))\cdot(q - \pi(y)) + s^2|q - \pi(y)|^2 must be ≥∣y−π(y)∣2\geq |y - \pi(y)|^2 for s∈(0,1]s \in (0, 1]; divide by ss and let s→0s \to 0. (b) Apply (a) at yy with q=π(z)q = \pi(z) and at zz with q=π(y)q = \pi(y), add, and use Cauchy–Schwarz: ∣π(y)−π(z)∣2≤(y−z)⋅(π(y)−π(z))|\pi(y) - \pi(z)|^2 \leq (y - z)\cdot(\pi(y) - \pi(z)). (c) The upper bound is d(z)≤12∣z−π(y)∣2d(z) \leq \tfrac12|z - \pi(y)|^2 expanded. For the lower bound, the same expansion at zz gives d(y)≤d(z)+(z−π(z))⋅(y−z)+12∣y−z∣2d(y) \leq d(z) + (z - \pi(z))\cdot(y - z) + \tfrac12|y - z|^2, and ∣(z−π(z))−(y−π(y))∣≤2∣z−y∣|(z - \pi(z)) - (y - \pi(y))| \leq 2|z - y| by (b). So ∣d(z)−d(y)−(y−π(y))⋅(z−y)∣≤52∣z−y∣2|d(z) - d(y) - (y - \pi(y))\cdot(z - y)| \leq \tfrac52|z - y|^2.

Exercise 10.16 Rehearsal: nonnegative curvature is preserved

For Hamilton's ODE (λ,μ,ν)′=(λ2+μν, μ2+λν, ν2+λμ)(\lambda, \mu, \nu)' = (\lambda^2 + \mu\nu,\ \mu^2 + \lambda\nu,\ \nu^2 + \lambda\mu):

(a) Show that the closed convex set K={λ≥0,μ≥0,ν≥0}K = \{\lambda \geq 0, \mu \geq 0, \nu \geq 0\} is invariant, by checking the hypothesis of Theorem 10.8: describe the outward normals at a boundary point, and show that FF takes values in KK on KK. This is Hamilton's theorem that a nonnegative curvature operator is preserved by Ricci flow in dimension 3, in its ODE form.

(b) Show that the half-space {λ+μ+ν≥0}\{\lambda + \mu + \nu \geq 0\} is invariant too, by showing that ddt(λ+μ+ν)≥0\frac{d}{dt}(\lambda + \mu + \nu) \geq 0 everywhere. (In Hamilton's normalisation λ+μ+ν\lambda + \mu + \nu is proportional to the scalar curvature, and this is the ODE shadow of ∂tR=ΔR+2∣Ric∣2\partial_tR = \Delta R + 2|\mathrm{Ric}|^2.)

(c) Show that a lower bound on the smallest eigenvalue is not preserved: the set {ν≥−1}\{\nu \geq -1\} (with λ≥μ≥ν\lambda \geq \mu \geq \nu) is not invariant, by finding a boundary point where ν′<0\nu' < 0. Controlling negative curvature from below needs a cleverer convex set, the one in the Hamilton–Ivey pinching estimate (11A.5 Hamilton–Ivey Pinching).

Solution

(a) At a boundary point p∈Kp \in K, some coordinates vanish, and the outward normals are the vectors −(a,b,c)-(a, b, c) with a,b,c≥0a, b, c \geq 0, non-zero only in the vanishing coordinates. On KK every component of FF is a sum of products of non-negative numbers, so F(p)∈KF(p) \in K and the inner product with any outward normal is ≤0\leq 0. (b) λ2+μ2+ν2+λμ+λν+μν=12((λ+μ)2+(λ+ν)2+(μ+ν)2)≥0\lambda^2 + \mu^2 + \nu^2 + \lambda\mu + \lambda\nu + \mu\nu = \tfrac12\big((\lambda + \mu)^2 + (\lambda + \nu)^2 + (\mu + \nu)^2\big) \geq 0. (c) At (λ,μ,ν)=(2,−1,−1)(\lambda, \mu, \nu) = (2, -1, -1), ν′=1+2⋅(−1)=−1<0\nu' = 1 + 2\cdot(-1) = -1 < 0, so the solution immediately enters {ν<−1}\{\nu < -1\}.

Next · 3A.1 · in preparationThe Problem of MeasureWhat a size should be, why Jordan measure is not enough, and sets that cannot be measured.

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